MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT FRI JUN 08 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY AND NRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 082212Z - 082345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS A FEW STRONGER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE SEWD FROM CANADA INTO FAR UPSTATE NY AND NRN VT THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER UPSTATE NY/NRN VT AND NWWD INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA SHOWED TSTMS HAD INCREASED DURING THE LAST 2 HOURS IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF 50-60 KT NWLY MIDLEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING A QUEBEC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED INTO THIS REGION. DESPITE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/...THE QUEBEC TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SUGGEST LOW TOPPED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL NUMBER OF STRONGER STORMS...AND THUS PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY PEAKING IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE...THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TO THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 06/08/2012 ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...
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