MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 08 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 081725Z - 081900Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.     HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY     OF A INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE ONE LATER THIS     AFTERNOON.          DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN     RESPONSE TO HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...AIDED BY     LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF     A DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK...FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST     QUEBEC INTO PARTS OF THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN NEW     ENGLAND.  IN ADDITION TO RATHER WEAK CAPE...DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY     MEAN FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE STILL QUITE MODEST ACROSS MOST     AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  SO...WHILE SMALL     HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH     SOME STORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM...SEEMS     RATHER LIMITED.  TOWARD 20-22Z...AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL     JET STREAK BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY     REGION...STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW FIELDS COULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR     POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.      HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR TO WHAT EXTENT PRECEDING CONVECTIVE CLOUD     COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ON THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY     THAT TIME.  POCKETS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LINGER...BUT     STRONG/SEVERE STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE AND MARGINAL     IN NATURE.          ..KERR/MEAD.. 06/08/2012               ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...