Thursday, June 7, 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094





        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0259 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA     PANHANDLE/SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA...NERN COLORADO          CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362...          VALID 071959Z - 072130Z          THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 362 CONTINUES.          SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS     WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRENDS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WW 362 WILL     CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE     THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.          DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF MID-LEVEL FORCING     FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH     LIFTING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT THE GREAT BASIN...IS IN THE PROCESS     OF SHIFTING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE HIGH     PLAINS.  HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST     DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE LEE OF THE FRONT     RANGE...WHERE SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY     HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM     WITH INSOLATION.  SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS     ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY     THROUGH 22-00Z...WHILE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.      SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN     ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE.          ..KERR.. 06/07/2012               ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... 

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