MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA...NERN COLORADO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362... VALID 071959Z - 072130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 362 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRENDS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WW 362 WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT THE GREAT BASIN...IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE...WHERE SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM WITH INSOLATION. SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHILE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 06/07/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... "INFORMS YOU ON WEATHER" THIS BLOG WILL INFORM ON WEATHER MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO MOST AREAS DURRING SEVERE WEATHER.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094
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