MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN AL...FAR SRN MS...SRN LA...A SMALL PART OF SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 061910Z - 062115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM E-CNTRL TX EWD INTO SWRN AL AND INVOF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AMIDST MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG PER MODIFIED LAKE CHARLES/SLIDELL 12Z RAOBS. LIGHT FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE PER AREA VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT A PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO DIURNAL HEATING ARE SUPPORTING DCAPE VALUES OF IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH COULD YIELD A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WATER-LOADING PROCESSES GIVEN PW VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES PER GPS DATA WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THIS THREAT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED...WITH ANY MARGINAL SVR THREAT VERY ISOLATED. ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2012 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...
No comments:
Post a Comment