MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0140 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...N-CNTRL     TX          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 061840Z - 062045Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...A BRIEF/MARGINAL SVR THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST     STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO     ANTICIPATED. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.          DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A LOW/MCV IS LOCATED NNE OF CHILDRESS TX     PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHILE A DIFFUSE SFC     FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK AND FARTHER     ESE INTO NERN TX. ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH      /1/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF THE DENSER ZONE OF     MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE MCV.../2/ THE     FRONT/TROUGH...AND /3/ CONVERGENT BANDS AROUND THE SFC REFLECTION OF     THE MCV WILL REMAIN THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THE     AFTERNOON AMIDST THE MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE     ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.          WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK...VWP DATA FROM TWIN LAKES/FREDERICK RADARS     SUGGEST SOME MODESTLY ENHANCED 2-4-KM-AGL FLOW OVER THE ERN FRINGES     OF THE MCV -- I.E. SSWLY TO SLY AT 20-25 KT -- WHICH MAY PROMOTE     STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS. THIS WOULD BE THE RESULT OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM     TRANSPORT PROCESSES IN DOWNDRAFTS...AUGMENTED BY WATER-LOADING     PROCESSES OWING TO PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES IN MANY AREAS     PER GPS DATA. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SVR WIND THREAT MAY     EXIST...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE AREAS OF     INSOLATION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE     RATES/STRONGER DCAPE. IF A LARGE NUMBER OF STORM MERGERS OCCUR WITH     LOCAL UPSCALE GROWTH...STORM CLUSTERS COULD PROPAGATE ESEWD/SEWD     INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE GIVEN MODEST ESELY/SELY INFLOW BELOW 0.5 KM     AGL. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST     STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR     THREAT. ALSO OF NOTE...WITH PW VALUES BEING 125-150 PERCENT OF     NORMAL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STORMS.          ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2012               ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA...