MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 050116Z - 050245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...PULSE-TYPE TSTMS WITH SPORADIC MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE BIG COUNTRY. DISCUSSION...POORLY ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS WITH PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS HAVE MERGED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS WITH COLLISION OF TWO OUTFLOWS FROM SWISHER TO GARZA COUNTIES. MODEST 15-20 KT LOW-LEVEL SELYS SAMPLED BY THE MAF/SJT/DYX VWP DATA SHOULD RESULT IN MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF MODERATE BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING /INCREASING MLCIN/ AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MCS INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY PROBABLE. ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/05/2012 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
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