MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0359 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE/TX     PANHANDLE...NERN NM          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 042059Z - 042230Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...STORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT INTO EARLY     EVENING. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH     ONLY SPORADIC INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS     UNLIKELY.          DISCUSSION...DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE     TROPOSPHERE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL     ASCENT HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS     AFTERNOON. MODEST ELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT     REGENERATIVE CONVECTION OVER ERN FLANKS OF EXPANDING COLD     POOLS...WHILE SLOW NET WWD STORM MOTION EVENTUALLY OCCURS. DCAPE     VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL     SUPPORT INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND     GUSTS...AIDED BY SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN EXCESS OF 30F     IN MANY LOCATIONS BENEATH A DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. MARGINALLY SVR     HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH     ONLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN POORLY     ORGANIZED WITH ANY SVR THREAT SHORT-LIVED. UNLESS UPSCALE GROWTH     OCCURS...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY. STORMS SHOULD     WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WITHIN THE     BOUNDARY LAYER.          ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/04/2012               ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...