MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0238 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF     KY/TN AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 041938Z - 042145Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT          SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP     THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...INITIALLY ACROSS FAR     EASTERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE     HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY     EVENING.          DISCUSSION...A 19Z-ANALYZED WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL     MO/NEAR STL...AND A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING WEAK FRONT ACROSS     SOUTHERN IL INTO WEST-CENTRAL KY...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT     SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE RELATIVELY     NEBULOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME     MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY EXIST...A PASSING MINOR SHORTWAVE     TROUGH/SPEED MAX...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE     LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE BASED     CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COLLOCATION OF     INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE     NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL ZONE...WITH MODERATE     INSTABILITY /1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT AND     40-50 KT MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.          SUPPORTED BY AN ASSORTMENT OF DETERMINISTIC/CONVECTION ALLOWING     GUIDANCE...SCATTERED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT     SHOULD OCCUR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS     WITHIN A NNW-SSE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INITIAL     DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO AND     SOUTH-CENTRAL/PERHAPS WEST-CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD     SOUTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING     ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...INCLUDING THE MO BOOTHEEL VICINITY AND     WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS     AND SEVERE HAIL.          ..GUYER/CARBIN.. 06/04/2012               ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...