MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0107 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...AR          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 041807Z - 042000Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT          SUMMARY...RECENT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SALINE COUNTY AR SUGGEST     SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER A FOCUSED     AREA OF CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE REMAINS IN     QUESTION BUT A WATCH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT AND TIME     OF DAY.          DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MCV ACROSS THE OZARKS     HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOWED FOR STRONG     SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AR. FOCUSED LIFT     ACCOMPANYING THE MCV HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT     DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEST OF LIT. VWP AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST     THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING NEAR/WITHIN A BAND OF 40-50KT     MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCV. RESULTANT AMBIENT     SHEAR MAY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH A CHANCE FOR     HAIL. IF STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS REMAINING WEAK INHIBITION IS     OVERCOME BY ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF SURFACE HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE     NEEDED.          ..CARBIN.. 06/04/2012               ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...