MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0238 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 021938Z - 022115Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT          SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION HAS IT     MIGRATES OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.          DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG THE     FRONT RANGE OF CO INTO NERN NM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS AIDED IN PART BY A     WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES.      HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL     BE INSTRUMENTAL IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS     THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 INTO NERN NM.  LATEST     FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 650-600 MB AND     WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SFC NEAR 35 F IT WOULD SEEM     PLAUSIBLE THAT LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH     SOME HAIL.  WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING WANES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE     TX SOUTH PLAINS THERE IS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS RETURNING NWD     INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS MAY ALSO FOCUS TSTM ACTIVITY LATER THIS     AFTERNOON.          ..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/02/2012               ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...