MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL PA INTO WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 012146Z - 012315Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST NE OF WW 332...AND
   ADDITIONAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE LINE MAY OCCUR AS WELL...EVENTUALLY
   AFFECTING WRN NY. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED AREAS OF
   ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...WEAK INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER NRN PA...WITH
   VERY LITTLE IN WRN NY. HOWEVER...A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   COMBINE WITH COOLING ALOFT TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
   CONVECTIVE LINE IN ERN OH...BUT SOME STABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED TO
   THE E WITH A STRONGER LINE IN PROGRESS. WITH A NNEWD MOVING PRESSURE
   RISE/FALL COUPLET...AND INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES...SOME BOWS OR LINE
   SEGMENTS MAY REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH EVENING EVEN WITH
   MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WILL BE OVER PA WHERE
   STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...WITH A LESSER THREAT TO THE N.
   
   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/01/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...