MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0153 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH     PLAINS...PARTS OF WRN OK...FAR SWRN KS...FAR SERN CO...NERN NM          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY           VALID 011853Z - 012030Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT          SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP     BETWEEN 1930Z AND 2100Z...WITH SVR HAIL/WIND BECOMING INCREASINGLY     LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH BY     2000Z.          DISCUSSION...BENEATH A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT...MODERATE MID/HIGH-LEVEL     NWLY FLOW REGIME...A SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS EXTENDING N-S ALONG     THE CO/KS BORDER ARCS SWWD TOWARD THE CO/NM BORDER SE OF TRINIDAD     CO...WHILE A FRONT LIES FARTHER EAST FROM NWRN KS TO W-CNTRL OK     ARCING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL OK. BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE FRONT IS     BEING MAINTAINED BY DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING OWING TO     PERSISTENT WAA-INDUCED CLOUDS/ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE     COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED     TROUGH AXIS AND ITS INTERSECTION NEAR A SUB-SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW OVER     FAR SERN CO IS SUPPORTING A NARROW SEGMENT OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND     LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ECHOES OVER PARTS OF BACA COUNTY IN SERN CO INTO     CIMARRON COUNTY IN THE OK PANHANDLE AMIDST NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC     0-3-KM LAPSE RATES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS     ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS     AND INVOF A SFC THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING SWD/SSWWD FROM THE SFC LOW.          DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO     DEEPEN NEAR THE SFC TROUGH/LOW AND IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS     OVER N-CNTRL NM AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE ANTECEDENT CINH.     AS STORMS MOVE SELY/SSELY INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING     SBCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG /LOCALLY HIGHER/...THE SVR POTENTIAL     WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK     SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH     WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER     CONVECTIVE INITIATION OWING TO THE LACK OF LARGE/SCALE ASCENT AND     ENSUING CINH REDUCTION INHIBITING STORM COVERAGE. SVR HAIL AND WIND     WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS     PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NERN NM WHICH WILL BE DOWNSTREAM     FROM THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT AND WITHIN THE     REGION OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...AND THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER WEST INTO NERN NM.     ELSEWHERE...STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAIN.          STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING     CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IF COLD POOLS MERGE...IN WHICH CASE AN INCREASING     THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WOULD ENSUE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC     TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN EXCESS OF 30F. THESE SPREADS WILL     GREATLY MITIGATE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS CONVECTION BECOMES     OUTFLOW-DOMINANT. HOWEVER...WITH WELL-DEFINED CURVATURE IN LOW-LEVEL     HODOGRAPHS COMBINED WITH BACKGROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE     FRONT...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS     WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED CANNOT BE RULED OUT.          ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012               ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...