MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011525Z - 011700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS SHEARING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA. IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING IS NOW CONTRIBUTING GREATLY TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEBRIS CANOPY AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE EXPECTED GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. CURRENT SPEED OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF FORCING WITH MCV WILL PROGRESS INTO SERN GA BY 21Z. ..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012 ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE