CNTRL AND NRN IA...SE MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0449 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN IA...SE MN          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 152149Z - 152315Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL     LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NCNTRL IA AND MAY AFFECT SE MN LATER THIS     EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE.          DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM     NEAR DES MOINES NWWD TO SOUTHEAST OF SIOUX FALLS IS LOCATED ON THE     SWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES     MLCAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 750 J/KG JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE     STORMS TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG IN FAR SE MN. THE STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER     MORE INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION     FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED VERY NEAR TO A 50 KT     MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE     SOUTHWEST. THE JET IS HELPING TO CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR     SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE     RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE UPDRAFTS STRENGTH.     STILL...A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH     THE MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.          ..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/15/2012               ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...          LAT...LON   42749106 43359118 43789184 43619355 43349452 42809479                 42329443 41779361 41679299 41819206 42749106