MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...329... VALID 312230Z - 010030Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...329...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...WATCH STATUS UPDATE: SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER KY WITH WIND AND HAIL LIKELY. LESS OF A THREAT EXISTS OVER TN AND AL...BUT ISOLATED...MARGINAL SEVERE IS POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE OH RIVER SWWD INTO ERN AR. A LEADING BAND OF STORMS IS ALSO MAINTAINING INTENSITY FROM SWRN TN INTO ERN MS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KY...WITH A MESOLOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE RELATIVELY STRONG CLUSTER OF CELLS APPROACHING LOUISVILLE. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FLOW AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ACROSS MUCH OF NRN KY. OTHER CELLS MAY FILL IN ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN KY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES. TO THE S...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU FROM THE AL BORDER NWD...SUGGESTIVE OF A MORE PRISTINE AIR MASS AS OPPOSED TO AREAS FARTHER S WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR. ISOLATED CELLS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LEADING LINE...SUGGESTING THIS LINE MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. OUTFLOW MERGERS FROM THIS LINE AND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER MIDDLE TN...WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/31/2012 ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
No comments:
Post a Comment