MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0947 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 311447Z - 311545Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT          SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE     TX AND SW LA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL     WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO     BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR WW ISSUANCE.          DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX IS LOCATED JUST     AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE     SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE     LINE MOVING SEWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS     SE TX AND SW LA. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES THAT MLCAPE IS IN THE 1500     TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WHICH WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. IN     ADDITION...AN AXIS OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL     AND SOUTH TX WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS SE TX IN THE 25 TO 45     KT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM     SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS     EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE     LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE     ESPECIALLY IF THE LINE CAN DEVELOP A PERSISTENT BOWING STRUCTURE.          ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/31/2012               ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...