MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0355 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND ERN NE          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY           VALID 262055Z - 262215Z          CORRECTED FOR EXTRA WORD IN AREA          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT          SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS     AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS.      INDICATIONS ARE STORMS MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE     REQUIRED.          DISCUSSION...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND     DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...MLCAPE VALUES ARE     AROUND 2500 TO 3500 J/KG.  VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS BEEN     ACTING TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. WITH THE FIRST OF TWO     WEAK IMPULSES MOVING INTO SRN NE...MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/SCATTERED     WEAK RADAR ECHOS INDICATE THAT LIFTING IN THE CRITICAL AREA OF THE     CAP IS OCCURRING.  ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL     POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY UPPER SYSTEM MOVING     INTO THE SRN KS. AS THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES NORTHWARD...ADDITIONAL     CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND     EASTERN NE INTO THE EVENING.          ONCE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE WITH UPDRAFTS TAPPING THE     LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASE     ACROSS THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50     KTS.  A GREATER TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT     SITUATED FROM SW NE TO NERN NE.          ..BOTHWELL/CARBIN.. 05/26/2012