DAY 2 MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

   SPC AC 290600          DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012          VALID 301200Z - 311200Z          ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND PORTIONS     OF OK...          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN     PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...          ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...     WHILE A DEGREE OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE     FEATURES...00Z-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REFLECT A QUICK     AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS ON     WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC     NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES/SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE     PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS     WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF 1/ A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH     PLAINS/NORTHWEST TX AND 2/ A SOUTH-TO-NORTH EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH     ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OTHERWISE IN VICINITY OF A     STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS OK/KS.           AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES/HEIGHT FALLS     OCCUR...CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL     SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL     BE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN KS AND     WESTERN/NORTHERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN GRADUALLY     STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WITH HEIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG     DESTABILIZATION /3000+ J PER KG MLCAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK INTO     SOUTHERN KS/...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/PERHAPS A FEW     TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL     HOURS OF TSTM INITIATION. THAT SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE     OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY INITIALLY WEAK LOW     LEVEL FLOW AND/OR BY CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER DARK. A SUBSEQUENT     UPSCALE GROWTH/EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING     MCS/S SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON     ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...AND OTHERWISE DURING THE EVENING HOURS     ACROSS OK/ADJACENT NORTH TX/EVENTUALLY AR WITH DAMAGING WINDS     /POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD/ A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE     EVENING/PERHAPS OVERNIGHT.          ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...     ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DIURNALLY INCREASE/MATURE     WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. VERTICAL     SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL     EXIST FOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS/SOME MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF     DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY     EVENING.          ...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO CAROLINAS...     A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE     REGION ALONG/SOUTH OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH SUCH     POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT/MODEST OVERALL     BUOYANCY. GIVEN THESE LIMITATIONS...AND UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE     EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS WELL AS POSSIBLE     WESTERN-PERIPHERAL/SUBSIDENT INFLUENCES OF REMNANT BERYL...WILL NOT     INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE TSTMS AT THIS TIME.          ..GUYER.. 05/29/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1501Z (10:01AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME