SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 162

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   605 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 605 PM
   UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST
   NORTHEAST OF AMARILLO TEXAS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
   PLAINVIEW TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT/DRYLINE RETREATING
   NWWD ACROSS REGION ARE DOING SO IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  AS
   SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL EVOLUTION WITH AN
   ATTENDANT RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR GROUND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   ERN PNHDL LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...SIGNALING A HEIGHTENED
   TORNADO RISK.  THUS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH IN THE 14/00-03Z TIME FRAME.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 25025.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162 Watch Hazard Probabilities


Tornadoes



Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (5%)



Wind



Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)



Hail



Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (40%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind



Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)