Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 166

 
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
   PM CDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
   BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA NEBRASKA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...
   
   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
   NEB THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
   ADVECTION AND A WEAK CAP MAY RESULT IN OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
   SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUGGESTING
   AND INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
   TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
  Tornado Watch 166 Watch Hazard Probabilities 

Tornadoes



Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

High (80%)



Wind



Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (60%)



Hail



Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

High (80%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind



Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)