CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY

                           Categorical Outlook

                           Wind Outlook

                           Hail Outlook

   SPC AC 061254

   

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   0754 AM CDT FRI APR 06 2012

   

   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

   

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FOR SE FL...

   

   ...SE FL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

   A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE BAND EXTENDS FROM PALM BEACH TO

   NAPLES AS OF 12Z...WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THIS BAND

   IN THE PAST HOUR. FARTHER N...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD

   INTO N FL AS THE ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES ESEWD OVER N

   FL/GA/SC.  THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE

   COLD FRONT TODAY...SOME DRYING ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE

   COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS ACROSS CENTRAL FL.  THE STRONGER

   STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH

   THE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS S FL...PER THE

   12Z MIAMI SOUNDING.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE OF 2000-3000  J/KG

   AND AN ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...A FEW

   STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  A LIMITING FACTOR...

   HOWEVER...WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER BY MIDDAY

   AND FOR LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO WEAKEN...ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES

   ALOFT.  STILL...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THROUGH AT

   LEAST 18Z FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL

   TROUGH...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

   

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD

   INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS ALONG A STALLED FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL SURGE

   EWD BY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD FROM

   THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES.  DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN

   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN A

   NARROW ZONE ALONG THE FRONT BY 21-00Z...WHEN THUNDERSTORM

   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FOCUSED BAND OF ASCENT FROM THE NEB

   PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS.  THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER

   HIGH BASED GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...AND MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN

   LESS THAN 500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND

   DEEP-LAYER SLY/SWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORM

   STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS

   AND SOME HAIL.  WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES AS A

   RESULT OF THE EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY.

   

   ...TX CAPROCK THIS EVENING...

   A DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING AND

   THE LEE TROUGH CONSOLIDATE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR THE CAPROCK. 

   THOUGH THERE IS NO CLEAR LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM

   DEVELOPMENT...L0W-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT THE

   DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH-BASED STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING.  VERTICAL

   SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN AN ENVIRONMENT

   WITH MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR STRONG

   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  STILL...SPARSE STORM COVERAGE SUPPORTS ONLY

   LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES.

   

   ...CENTRAL KS/EXTREME NRN OK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

   MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELEVATED

   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SPREADING SEWD TO NEAR THE

   OK BORDER IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.  THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE

   ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...WITH MUCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 1000

   J/KG.  WILL OPT TO NOT ADD ANY HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS

   OUTLOOK...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE

   THREAT IN LATER UPDATES CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED TIME OF THE EVENT.

   

   ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/06/2012

   

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