NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND SERN TO EAST CENTRAL MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 98...
VALID 220227Z - 220400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 98 CONTINUES.
IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES PER HIGH PW VALUES /IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCH/ WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN TOWARD THE
NNE...WITHIN A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN SERN MS.
MID EVENING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
NWD THROUGH SERN TO EAST CENTRAL MS. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT SSELY UPPER
LEVEL JET PER 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH
RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PW OF 1.81 PER 00Z SLIDELL LA SOUNDING/
AND MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATE EVENING. AT 0215Z...REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF TSTMS LOCATED WITHIN THIS CONVERGENT
ZONE...WITH THE STORMS EXTENDING NNEWD FROM ERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH
THROUGH SERN MS TO THE NERN PART OF WW 98 IN EAST CENTRAL MS.
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE SLIDELL LA SOUNDING MODIFIED
FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SERN MS INDICATED THAT PARCELS
REMAIN SURFACE BASED. GIVEN SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 50 KT
SSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS WW 98...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35
KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR A TORNADO THREAT.
..PETERS.. 03/22/2012
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 28618914 29118945 29438973 30268956 31188945 32048947
32608948 32598837 31828850 30248827 29758830 29238864
28898866 28678885 28618914
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