MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0844 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THRU NE LA INTO WRN/NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72...

VALID 120144Z - 120315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 72 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED LOCALLY.

AS THE SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...THIS EVENING...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SUPPORTING ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...WITH
A CORRESPONDING GRADUAL WEAKENING OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DIMINISHING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

THROUGH 03-04Z...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY STILL REMAIN AT LEAST
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO THE PRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS
SPREADING OUT OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR OF MISSISSIPPI...NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON INTO THE
GREENWOOD VICINITY. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH IN A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.