MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236

Isolated Threat for Severe Hail

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CST THU MAR 08 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 082054Z - 082200Z AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF SRN OK. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 2030Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS INTENSIFICATION OF ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS OVER SRN OK. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE...ROOTED NEAR 1.5-2 KM AGL AND AIDED BY 30 KTS OF SWLY FLOW /PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/. WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE /7 DEG C PER KM/ AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KTS...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ORGANIZED/STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE MIDLEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND FOCUSED AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED /PER 20Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE MARGINAL WITH NWD PROGRESSION...WITH TSTMS RAPIDLY MOVING N-NEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WW ATTM. ..ROGERS.. 03/08/2012 ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33909508 33799621 33889742 34039809 34259845 34799829 35119778 35149698 35069632 35049589 34779515 34429460 34039464 33909508