MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CST WED MAR 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...WRN/NRN OK...FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 080136Z - 080300Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO NRN OK AND SRN KS TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR A WW.

AT 01Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM
MKC SWWD TOWARD AVK IN NRN OK TO AMA IN THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT
AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AREA VWP/S AND PROFILERS INDICATE SLY FLOW
AT 1 KM AGL IS ACCELERATING OVER TX AND OK...WHICH WILL AID IN
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE COLD/STABLE NEAR SURFACE
AIRMASS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...OBSERVED 00Z RAOBS
SHOW THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...WHICH IS LEADING TO MUCAPE VALUES ROOTED AT 850 MB RANGING
FROM 500-1000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS WELL AS
INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE 30-45 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED /MAINLY ELEVATED/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KT...SOME RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...MARGINAL BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR
WEATHER THREAT...AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..GARNER.. 03/08/2012


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36589987 37619736 37669614 36789558 35579728 34549968
35450065 36589987