DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MN VICINITY SSWWD INTO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A
LARGE/FAIRLY SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH CONTINUES A SLOW EWD SHIFT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A STRONG/LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS BOTH THE WRN AND
ERN THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE THE CENTRAL U.S. EXPERIENCES THE
EFFECTS OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS THE
PRIMARY AREA OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.
...ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY/OZARKS...
COMPLEX/CHALLENGING WEATHER SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS PERIOD...AS
CONTINUED/SLOW EWD ADVANCE OF THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS
IS EXPECTED. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS -- AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL -- ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH --
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND GENERAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION -- WILL LIKELY HINDER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD ZONE OF RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SWD TO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM ERN OK NWD...FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THE GREATEST THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO EXIST FROM ERN OK AND PERHAPS
WRN AR SSWWD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX -- ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. HERE...GREATER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT
ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF ONGOING STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE SWLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT YIELDING A MORE
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS A FOCUSED AREA OF GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL -- REFLECTED IN THE OUTLOOK GRAPHIC.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MORE LINEAR/SLOW-MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION FROM SWRN MO/ERN OK/WRN AR SWWD TO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG
THE ADVANCING FRONT. ALONG WITH ONGOING SEVERE RISK...POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST.
..GOSS.. 03/17/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
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