NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST FRI MAR 09 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SERN TX/LA...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EJECTING UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO IA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION IT APPEARS TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE MAY NOT BE
PARTICULARLY CONVERGENT ACROSS LOWER LATITUDES AND WILL LIKELY LOSE
ITS IDENTITY WITH TIME AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL ENCOURAGE THE LLJ TO FOCUS ACROSS AR/MO BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH SUSTAINED SLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
ALLOW MODIFIED TROPICAL AIRMASS TO RETURN ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS OF SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE SFC DEW POINTS
SHOULD EASILY RISE THROUGH THE MID 60S. IT APPEARS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX NWD INTO ERN KS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW ROBUST
THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EAST TX AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG. EVEN SO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND WILL
INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WELL SOUTH
OF THE STRONGER ZONE OF FORCING. WITH FRONTOLYSIS EXPECTED ALONG
THE TRAILING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF I-20 TSTM OUTFLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING FOR EWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION INTO LA DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
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