NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL
AR...
...ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL AR...
LATEST GFS AND NAM ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EJECTING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION TO
A POSITION ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER BY 12/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN ACCELERATE A BIT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 120-150M...WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO CLIP THE ARKLATEX REGION COINCIDENT WITH
THE NRN MOST ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION SUFFICIENT FOR
ROBUST NEAR-SFC CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM CNTRL TX...NWD ACROSS OK INTO KS/SWRN
MO. SUSTAINED SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD ALLOW 60F+ SFC DEW POINTS TO RETURN ACROSS EAST TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO SRN AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ARGUES
FOR AT LEAST A 15% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN
AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750 J/KG. WHILE
THE STRONGEST ZONE OF ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD REGIONS NORTH OF
AR...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COULD
ENCOURAGE STRONG/SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.
...ELSEWHERE...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG/COLD UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FL AND ELEVATED ACTIVITY
MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE OF THE EJECTING SHORT-WAVE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
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