DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
   MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE CONSOLIDATED...AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
   WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD...WHILE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS NEAR/JUST WEST OF
   THE PACIFIC COAST.  LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL IN
   BETWEEN...ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...BUT A VIGOROUS EMBEDDED COMPACT
   CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY
   PROGRESSING THROUGH ITS CREST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
   
   A DEEP...BUT LIKELY WEAKENING...SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
   LATTER FEATURE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHIFTING EAST OF THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
   REGION...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH
   CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER CLOSED
   LOW/TROUGH NOW FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS...WARM SECTOR MOISTENING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED...AND LARGELY CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG A
   CONFLUENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET.  STILL...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
   TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO
   VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRY LINE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WITHIN A STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
   TUESDAY NIGHT.  AND THE RISK FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND
   GUSTS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE IN MOST AREAS.
   
   ...PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...
   THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS
   LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
   IN ADVANCE OF THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  THIS IS
   EXPECTED...IN GENERAL...TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   FOR THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT COOLING
   ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY TO
   SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT OVERSPREADS THE
   PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
   AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. 
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS NARROW BROKEN
   CONVECTIVE BAND...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN INTO WEST CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY BASED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS IT SPREADS EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION /CAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED BENEATH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
   NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
   LEAST MODESTLY STRONG ALONG THIS AXIS...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER LOW
   AND MID-LEVEL JET CORES SHIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT THE SAME TIME... MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY INCLUDE A FEW
   SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
   NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BEFORE CONVECTION
   WEAKENS/DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/26/2012
   
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