NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...
...DEEP SOUTH...
SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS WITHIN A MODERATE NWLY FLOW
REGIME SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AIDED BY A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM BETWEEN 700-500 MB
EVIDENT IN 00Z BMX/FFC RAOBS. ALTHOUGH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND
WEAKENING OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME...AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS COULD
FOSTER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL SWD-MOVING MCS IN AL...WHICH IS
DEPICTED IN THE MOST RECENT WRF-NSSL RUN. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED
SLIGHT RISK SWD AND EXPECT SOME TRANSITION OF MOSTLY LARGE HAIL TO A
MIX OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
...ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...
AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A
RELATIVELY NARROW 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ OVER SRN/ERN IA THIS
EVENING...THE NRN EXTENT ALREADY CONFIRMED BY THE DMX VAD WIND
PROFILE. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF SURFACE WARM FRONT
ARCING ACROSS SERN IA INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY SHOULD FOSTER
SATURATION NEAR 850 MB AND REMOVAL OF MUCIN EVIDENT IN 00Z DVN RAOB.
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE
REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AND LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH TONIGHT. AMIDST A LONG/STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH...POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
SEVERE HAIL APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.
..GRAMS.. 04/01/2012
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