Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS REGION SWD INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING THE IA/SRN MN VICINITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...WHILE A LEE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MO/AR/E TX/LA... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...FROM PARTS OF ERN KS/OK/ERN TX EWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WIDESPREAD...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE HEATING SHOULD HINDER OVERALL DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING VORT LOBE SE OF THE MAIN LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS. HAVING SAID THAT...INCREASING/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL. OVERALL...THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MODULATED BY THE WEAK LAPSE RATES/VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON -- IN WHICH CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD BE REALIZED. WHILE A CONDITIONAL SCENARIO...THREAT WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE ALREADY-LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THREAT SHOULD WANE SOME OVERNIGHT.
MORE INFO AT, SPC T-STORM OUTLOOK